Premier League Predictions Week 27 – Gurgler v Divorce

After an FA Cup 5th Round interruption, it’s time for a return to the EPL and our Premier League Predictions Week 27.

There’s also a League Cup final interruption, which explains the eight games and no Man City, Chelsea, Brighton and Everton this week.

Every week we offer up our Premier League predictions, along with a mini preview of each match, with a few best bets in an alternative Premier League preview.

We also put our tips up against a competitor, usually not human though, and based on some football stat or general life. This week our tipping opponent is based on the Divorce rate of UK regions.

It’s a lot like the BBC’s Lawros tips, but better. Arguably.

Premier League Predictions Week 27 – Gurgler v Divorce

TIPS BACKGROUND: Since we did tips based on the UK Spend on Valentine’s Day for Week 26, why not go the other way and have tips based on Divorce Rate in the UK for Week 27.

Because maybe those who didn’t spend a lot on Valentine’s Day have their partnership ending in Divorce due to a lack of spend on Valentine’s Day.

So, using the divorce rate, whichever region has the lower divorce rate, the fans will be happier, and hence support their team more, leading to victory. Or so we say.

GURGLER PREMIER LEAGUE Predictions Week 27

But first our tips. Based on our opinion, research, study and ignorance. (In no particular order)

DRAW – Cardiff v Watford (1-1)
WEST HAM to beat Fulham (2-1)
SPURS to beat Burnley (2-0)
WOLVES to beat Bournemouth (2-1)
NEWCASTLE to beat Huddersfield (2-0)
CRYSTAL PALACE to beat Leicester (1-0)
LIVERPOOL to beat Man Utd (2-1)
DRAW – Arsenal v Southampton (1-1)

PREMIER LEAGUE Predictions Week 27 – Divorce Rate in the UK

The team whose region has the lowest divorce rate gets the tip.

WATFORD to beat Cardiff
DRAW – West Ham v Fulham
SPURS to beat Burnley
WOLVES to beat Bournemouth
HUDDERSFIELD to beat Newcastle
LEICESTER to beat Crystal Palace
DRAW – Man Utd v Liverpool
SOUTHAMPTON to beat Arsenal

Premier League Predictions Week 27 Mini Match by Match Preview

Here’s a quick run down of every game for Week 27, with a barely interesting stat and a best bet included for those inclined.

CARDIFF v WATFORD

Kick Off: Friday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Watford 3 Cardiff 2

Cardiff come into the game after a FA Cup enforced break, enough time to celebrate their win at Southampton last start which allowed the teams to swap safety status. Two wins in a row now for Cardiff and their home record isn’t too bad either – 10 points from their last six home games is as good as Wolves and Burnley. Goals could still be the issue for Cardiff, only Huddersfield have scored less in their last six games. Although both teams have scored in this fixture at Cardiff in the last 8 games.

Watford are into the last eight of the FA Cup and avoided both Manchester sides in the draw, so they have a great chance of at least getting to a Wembley semi final. They currently sit eighth in the table, and last six form.

Barely Interesting Fact: Cardiff have led at half time once this season, despite winning seven games. Or both teams have had 7 clean sheets this year, but Cardiff have conceded 13 more goals.

Best Bet: Both teams to score – Yes @ $1.72

WEST HAM v FULHAM

Kick Off: Friday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Fulham 0 West Ham 2

Fulham are getting close to a point of no return in their battle for survival. Talking of no points or very few, the Cottagers are still winless away from home this year. Claudio Ranieri has made a small impact at Fulham – his points per game is at 0.86 – more than double the 0.42 of his predecessor, and the goals conceded have dropped from 2.6 per game to 1.9. But neither are great reading or likely to save Fulham in the EPL.

West Ham are reasonably unpredictable, however they have lost just once at home in their last six. Clean sheet are a worry for both sides though, West Ham have just two at home, Fulham have just two in all games.

Barely Interesting Fact: Both sides have been knocked out by 3rd tier or lower teams in the FA Cup this season. Fulham have conceded exactly four times as many goals as they’ve scored away this year.

Best Bet: Felipe Anderson to score anytime @ $2.50

BURNLEY v SPURS

Kick Off: Saturday 12:30pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Spurs 1 Burnley 0

Spurs are the Premier League’s best away team with the most points, most goals scored, and fewest losses. Perhaps that’s because they technically don’t have their own home at the moment. They are going OK since losing Harry Kane to injury. 4/4 in the Premier League and a win over Dortmund as well. You’d have to overlook the FA Cup exit.

Burnley are going quite nicely too, sitting 5th in the last six form. Their 10 points at home in their last six is a significant % of their total home points for the season of 14. Their record against the big six isn’t great recently, so it should be another Spurs win, just to make the title race a bit more interesting.

Barely Interesting Fact: Burnley last beat Spurs in 2010 (4-2) – there has been just one draw since.

Best Bet: Spurs to score 2 or more goals @ $1.67

BOURNEMOUTH v WOLVES

Kick Off: Saturday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Wolves 2 Bournemouth 0

A battle of two teams in the top six for last six form for home and away respectively, Wolves are sitting seventh as they are much better on the road. Wolves last start draw against Newcastle ended a run of three straight wins against their mid table rivals, but truth is that Wolves seem a cut above all but the top six. A summer upgrade to their squad could have them really annoying a club like Arsenal next season.

Wolves aren’t top six yet, and Bournemouth are yet to lose at home to a team outside the top six, and put one of the nails in the Sarri coffin last home game with a 4-0 trouncing of Chelsea. 

Barely Interesting Fact: Bournemouth have scored 73% of their points at home this year, second only to Fulham.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ $2.13

NEWCASTLE v HUDDERSFIELD

Kick Off: Saturday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Huddersfield 0 Newcastle 1

A scrap at the bottom between one side that looks doomed for relegation, and the other who are just one point from the drop zone. 

Newcastle are the third worst team at home this year, but have beaten Cardiff 3-0 and Manchester City no less in their last two home fixtures. Despite five goals in their last two wins, they still average under one goal a game at home. We look forward to seeing more of Miguel Almirón.

Talking of less than one goal a game, Huddersfield average under one goal a game away, but their 8 in 13 is better than their 6 in 14 at home. They are winless in 13 games and 14 points from safety. If a miracle is on and they can bridge that gap, a win is needed this weekend.

Barely Interesting Fact: Huddersfield’s 1-0 win over Newcastle in the Magpies last visit to the second tier was their first in over 50 years.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ $1.56

LEICESTER CITY v CRYSTAL PALACE

Kick Off: Saturday 5:30pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Crystal Palace 1 Leicester 0

The gap between these two sides is closing in league position and points. Crystal Palace are now 13th to Leicester’s 12th, and the current five point gap could be own to under a win after this weekend.

Leicester’s fall from solid midfield has been on the back of four losses and a draw in their last five, leaving Claude Puel in the running for the next manager sacked. Leicester aren’t much better at home recently, losing four of their last five home fixtures. Although they did beat Manchester City in that five game run.

Crystal Palace are another team that has beaten Manchester City recently, away from home, which shows they’re comfortable on the road. In fact they have scored one more point away than at home.

Barely Interesting Fact: Leicester’s last 5 pattern is LLDLL. Crystal Palace’s last 5 sequence is WDWDW. That makes a draw a certainty

Best Bet: Draw or Crystal Palace @ $1.62

MANCHESTER UNITED v LIVERPOOL

Kick Off: Sunday 2:05pm
Previous 2018-19 Result: Liverpool 3 Man Utd 1

The big game of the weekend, and certainly more riding on it than the last fixtures which saw a big Liverpool win and a last hurrah of Jose Mourinho at Man Utd and probably the Premier League.

Manchester United have turned their season around since their loss at Anfield, in fact if the table was done from after Mourinho’s sacking, Man Utd would be 1st and ahead of Man City by four points with a game in hand. Paul Pogba finally showing the player he has been everywhere else.

Liverpool are five points worse off than Man Utd since their big win, but still remain equal on points with Man City with a game in hand. That game in hand advantage evaporates this weekend if Man Utd win. So in effect, Man Utd fans have a hard choice as a win for their side will help their city rivals. A loss will see Liverpool strengthen their position.

Maybe it will be a draw. There were four in a row prior to the last two matches.

Barely Interesting Fact: Liverpool have not won at Old Trafford since 2014, and before that it was 2009. So pattern dictates that Liverpool win this weekend. Mo Salah hasn’t scored against Man Utd in three games.

Best Bet: Liverpool to win and both teams score @ $4.00

ARSENAL v SOUTHAMPTON

Kick Off: Sunday 2:05pm
Previous 2018-19 Result: Southampton 3 Arsenal 2

Arsenal head into a game they should win with on a streak of six straight wins at home in the Premier League, and the third best home record overall, with just one loss. They did lose to Man Utd on Monday in the FA Cup and to BATE Borisov in the Europa League.

Southampton’s away form this year has been decent, but they sit in the bottom three after losing to fellow relegation candidate Cardiff last weekend. The Saints are unbeaten in the last four away matches, and their seven goals conceded in the last 6 matches is behind Liverpool and Man Utd only. Southamptron have avoided defeat against Arsenal at least once in all but one season since 2000.

Barely Interesting Fact: The last two games between these sides has ended in 3-2 to the home side.

Best Bet: Both teams to score – Yes @ $1.72

FPL Week 27 – Fantasy Premier League Preview

Click on the link above to see our preview of the Fantasy football side of things this week.

2018-2019 Premier League Tipping Competition Results

THE GURGLER

2018-2019 Tipping Results – 136/261 – 52% – (14 Correct Scores)

Last Week Tipping Results –  6/10

Best – 7/10 Week 1, 3, 4, 7, 15, 25

OPPOSITION

2018-2019 Results – 109/240 – 45%

Week 1 – 6/10 – Week 1 Form from last 5 seasons
Week 2 – 5/10 – Change in Market Value after Transfer Window
Week 3 – 4/10 – Red Cards from last 5 seasons
Week 4 – 7/10 – Form v Post Sir Alex Man Utd
Week 5 – 5/10 – Post International Break Form
Week 6 – 3/10 – Avoiding Russian Spies
Week 7 – 4/10 – Brexit
Week 8 – 6/10 – v Jose Mourinho
Week 9 – 4/10 – Sacked Managers / Tenure
Week 10 – 4/10 – Fighting Managers
Week 11 – 7/10 – v Leicester City
Week 12 – 4/10 – US Mid Term Elections
Week 13 – 6/10 – Claudio Ranieri
Week 14 – 5/10 – Own Goals
Week 15 – 5/10 – Midweek Form (Last 5 Seasons)
Week 16 – 2/10 – Hate
Week 17 – 4/10 – Dangerous Nickname
Week 18 – 5/10 – Christmas Shopping
Week 19 – 4/10 – Boxing Day Form
Week 20 – 7/10 – 2018 Form
Week 21 – 1/10 – New Year’s Eve
Week 22 – 7/10 – January Form
Week 23 – 3/10 – Traffic
Week 24 – 2/10 – Post FA Cup 3rd / 4th Round Form
Week 25 – 4/10 – Happiness
Week 26 – 6/10 – Valentine’s Days