Premier League Predictions Week 22 – Gurgler v January

As if last weekend’s FA Cup wasn’t enough, there’s more Premier League Football, as well as our Premier League Predictions Week 22 for the first time this calendar year.

Every week we offer up our Premier League predictions, along with a mini preview of each match, with a few best bets in an alternative Premier League preview.

We also put our tips up against a competitor, usually not human though, and based on some football stat or general life. This week our tipping opponent is based on each team’s performance in January given it can be a make or break month.

It’s a lot like the BBC’s Lawros tips, but better. Arguably.

Premier League Predictions Week 22 – Gurgler v January Form

TIPS BACKGROUND: Given how busy and important January is in English Football, it seems about right to use all club’s January form as a method of picking winners.

We have assembled the league records of all teams from the last 10 seasons, capturing lower league results too, and worked out a points per game for each side in January.

The bigger the score, the team gets the tip.

Interestingly, or not, Manchester United are the January kings of the last ten seasons.

GURGLER PREMIER LEAGUE Predictions Week 22

Based on our opinion, research, study and ignorance. (In no particular order)

DRAW – West Ham v Arsenal (1-1)
DRAW – Leicester v Southampton (1-1)
DRAW – Brighton v Liverpool (1-1)
BURNLEY to beat Fulham (2-1)
CARDIFF to beat Huddersfield (2-0)
DRAW – Crystal Palace v Watford (1-1)
CHELSEA to beat Newcastle (3-0)
EVERTON to beat Bournemouth (2-1)
DRAW – Spurs v Man Utd (1-1)
MANCHESTER CITY to beat Wolves (2-1)

PREMIER LEAGUE Predictions Week 22 – January Form (Last 10 Seasons)

Based on each team’s January performance of the last 10 seasons. Average points per game in brackets.

ARSENAL (1.6) to beat West Ham (1.5)
LEICESTER (1.8) to beat Southampton (1.4)
LIVERPOOL (1.7) to beat Brighton (1.6)
BURNLEY (1.4) to beat Fulham (1.3)
CARDIFF (1.7) to beat Huddersfield (1.1)
WATFORD (1.1) to beat Crystal Palace (1.0)
CHELSEA (1.9) to beat Newcastle (1.3)
EVERTON (1.5) to beat Bournemouth (1.3)
MAN UTD (2.2) to beat Spurs (1.8)
MAN CITY (2.0) to beat Wolves (1.1)

Premier League Predictions Week 22 Mini Match by Match Preview

Here’s a quick run down of every game for Week 22, with a barely interesting stat and a best bet included for those inclined.

WEST HAM v ARSENAL

Two London clubs kick off the weekend, both got through the FA Cup weekend with victories, and for West Ham good news as Arnautovic and Andy Carroll both scored. That gives them plenty of options up front. Despite the gap of 13 points and five league positions, both of these sides have only kept three clean sheets so far in 21 games.

Although Arsenal have only failed to score once. For West Ham that is eight times. Could have been a Jack Wilshere derby if he was playing much, you almost forget he ended up at West Ham.

Barely Interesting Fact: West Ham haven’t beaten Arsenal at either of their home grounds since 2006. The for and against is a nasty 10-26.

“Best” Bet: Both sides to score @ $1.45

LEICESTER v SOUTHAMPTON

Who can guess how Leicester will go this weekend. Recently they have beaten Chelsea and Everton away and Man City at home, then they get knocked out of the cup by Newport and hand Cardiff their first away win of the season. The arrival of Southampton won’t make it any easier to guess after their surprise last round drawing 0-0 at Chelsea.

With four of the five bottom teams playing each other – Southampton the exception – it is a crucial weekend to grab three points and get some momentum to get out of third last.

Barely Interesting Fact: The last three games between these sides at the King Power Stadium have been 0-0 draws. And you have to go back to 2007 when the Saints last won there.

“Best” Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ $1.76

BRIGHTON v LIVERPOOL

Brighton got a good win in the FA Cup against Bournemouth, and are facing table toppers Liverpool who have lost their past two games 2-1 on the road. What price a third? It’s not out of the question. Brighton’s only two blemishes at home this season have been competitive 2-1 losses to Spurs and Chelsea. They actually have as many points at home v Spurs. 

Barely Interesting Fact: Brighton have scored in every home EPL fixture this season. They last beat Liverpool in the FA Cup in 1984.

“Best” Bet: Both teams to score – Yes @ $1.91

BURNLEY v FULHAM

Fulham look fondly back on last meeting, taking advantage of dreadful run of form from Burnley and winning 4-2. Claudio Ranieri has since been brought in to save their season, and whilst there has been improvement, Fulham are second last. Defence has been tightened as expected – they have conceded 1.8 goals a game before Ranieri and 2.6 before. Prior to their 4-1 thrashing by Arsenal, they had only conceded one goal in three games.

Burnley have won their past tow league games, and a loss here may not drop them into the bottom three, but it would allow Fulham to close the gap to one point.

Barely Interesting Fact: Fulham haven’t won at Burnley since 1951 There have been 24 losses and 7 draws since.

“Best” Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ $2.20

CARDIFF v HUDDERSFIELD

This will complete a run of playing every other team in the bottom six, which hasn’t gone well. They have lost eight in a row, and got knocked out of the FA Cup by Championship side Bristol City which was pretty predictable. Only Fulham have been worse on the road this year too.

Cardiff have been comparatively strong at home, but have lost their last two in Cardiff. If results go their way this weekend, Cardiff could get a magical five points clear of the drop.

Barely Interesting Fact: Tough work for Huddersfield – Cardiff are unbeaten in the last 10 games against the Terriers. (7W 3D)

“Best” Bet: Cardiff to win @ $2.10

CRYSTAL PALACE v WATFORD

Both teams took care of lower league opposition last weekend in the FA Cup, Watford more comfortable against 6th Tier Woking than Crystal Palace were against fourth tier Grimsby. Crystal Palace are the equal lowest scorers at home this season, Watford have scored nearly three times as many goals on the road than Palace have at home.

They have won the last few at home to Watford, but the Hornets have only failed to score three times on the road this season.

Barely Interesting Fact: Crystal Palace have failed to score in seven of their 10 EPL fixtures this season.

“Best” Bet: Crystal Palace to score one goal or less @ $1.50

CHELSEA v NEWCASTLE

Strange but true, Chelsea have only won two of their last five at home, yet they have conceded just one goal – which is one less than the undefeated at home Liverpool. The loss to Leicester was a surprise, as was the draw to lowly Southampton 0-0, in a game you would have expected Eden Hazard to get right among the goals. The problem is he doesn’t score when Morata plays, a problem they will have to fix in the next few weeks.

They shouldn’t worry about conceding too many to Newcastle – the second worst goal scorers in the EPL. But they have scored more goals away than home.

Barely Interesting Fact: Stamford Bridge hasn’t been a good hunting ground in the EPL for Newcastle. They have won just once there since 1992, and the for and against stands at 43-11.

“Best” Bet: Both teams to score – No @ $1.57

EVERTON v BOURNEMOUTH

Just two wins in ten matches in the league for both of these sides, which explains why they are now 10th and 11th instead of the sharper end of the midfield battle like earlier in the season. Bournemouth were knocked out of the FA Cup by Brighton last weekend and will probably welcome the break, Everton got past 4th tier Lincoln City who gave them quite the game.

Everton have lost their past two home games in the league, but it is far better than Bournemouth’s five straight losses on the road.

Barely Interesting Fact: Bournemouth have never won at Everton, back in 2016 the score was 6-3. Six of their seven EPL clashes have seen 3 goals or more.

“Best” Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.67

SPURS v MANCHESTER UNITED

Could this be Mauricio Pochettino taking on the club he will take over next season? Would be hard to argue against the job Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is doing, but this is the first true test of his reign at Manchester United. You can’t complain about his five wins from five, and the resurgence of Paul Pogba and co, but we’ll see after the trip to Wembley.

Both of these teams are equal in the last six form with 15 points, and a win here for United really gives them a chance for the top four. Which was unthinkable a month ago.

Barely Interesting Fact: Harry Kane’s record against Man Utd isn’t great – 2 goals in nine games and a return of a goal/assist every 3 games. It is the worst strike rate for the top 25 teams he’s played against.

“Best” Bet: First half Under 1.5 Goals @ $1.50

MANCHESTER CITY v WOLVES

Wolves were one of the first clubs this season to show how Man City could be contained with an excellent performance in the draw earlier in the season. Their record is pretty good against the big six too, only one loss to Liverpool and Spurs, and they avenged both of those (although Liverpool only in the FA Cup n Monday). Talking of FA Cup  Man City really did the job on the weekend with a decent side thrashing Rotherham 7-0. Wolves will still be bullish of their chances, considering a side like Crystal Palace could get the job done at the Etihad recently.

Barely Interesting Fact: Wolves have taken 1.3 points on average against the top six (P7 W2 D3 L2). The rest of the teams is only just better at 1.4.

“Best” Bet: HT / FT – Draw / Man City @ $4.00

Last week’s “Best” Bets – 2 / 10

Premier League Predictions Week 22 – MMMMMulti

Time to make some money – here’s our best five tips rolled into one money-making machine.

DRAW – Leicester v Southampton (1-1)
DRAW – Brighton v Liverpool (1-1)
CARDIFF to beat Huddersfield (2-0)
CHELSEA to beat Newcastle (3-0)
MANCHESTER CITY to beat Wolves (2-1)

$1 for $50

2018-2019 Premier League Tipping Competition Results

THE GURGLER

2018-2019 Tipping Results – 108/210 – 51% – (11 Correct Scores)

Last Week Tipping Results –  4/10

Best – 7/10 Week 1, 3, 4, 7, 15

OPPOSITION

2018-2019 Results – 97/210 – 46%

Week 1 – 6/10 – Week 1 Form from last 5 seasons
Week 2 – 5/10 – Change in Market Value after Transfer Window
Week 3 – 4/10 – Red Cards from last 5 seasons
Week 4 – 7/10 – Form v Post Sir Alex Man Utd
Week 5 – 5/10 – Post International Break Form
Week 6 – 3/10 – Avoiding Russian Spies
Week 7 – 4/10 – Brexit
Week 8 – 6/10 – v Jose Mourinho
Week 9 – 4/10 – Sacked Managers / Tenure
Week 10 – 4/10 – Fighting Managers
Week 11 – 7/10 – v Leicester City
Week 12 – 4/10 – US Mid Term Elections
Week 13 – 6/10 – Claudio Ranieri
Week 14 – 5/10 – Own Goals
Week 15 – 5/10 – Midweek Form (Last 5 Seasons)
Week 16 – 2/10 – Hate
Week 17 – 4/10 – Dangerous Nickname
Week 18 – 5/10 – Christmas Shopping
Week 19 – 4/10 – Boxing Day Form
Week 20 – 7/10 – 2018 Form
Week 21 – 1/10 – New Year’s Eve

Try our Fantasy Premier League Preview – The Own Goal